Uh-oh. Veteran pollster has some bad news for Republicans
March 12, 2018
Democrats now have a new advantage in the House. Pollster makes more than two dozen ratings changes to various House races for the 2018 midterm elections
(NATIONAL) -- A veteran political pollster has some bad news for Republicans. His latest calculations have caused him to shift more than two dozen House races closer to the Democratic side in his projections, according to a report by Salon.com
Larry J. Sabato, described by Salon as a political scientist and polling expert wrote last Thursday that, "No Democratic incumbent is now rated worse than Likely Democratic, a nod to the reality that in a Democratic-leaning environment it will be difficult for Republicans to dislodge many or perhaps even any Democratic incumbents, though there are a handful of Democratic open seats that are more viable Republican targets."
Some items from that report:
~ He calculates that fewer than 218 seats (the minimum necessary for a majority) could be considered at least leaning Republican and that is a first for the 2018 midterm election cycle.
~ Sabato predicts the upcoming, very closely watched special election for Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District would be a toss-up. And that is a stunning turn in a district that President Donald Trump won by 20 points in the 2016 election.
~ More good news for Democrats: he figures the "reelection rate for Democratic incumbents in the fall is likely to be extremely high, if not unblemished."
~ He draws his conclusions based on the fact that Donald Trump is a very unpopular president and the incumbent party usually doesn't do very well during midterm election years to begin with.
~ And the downside for Democrats? He still thinks Republicans have a 50/50 shot of keeping their majority in the House of Representatives and it is less likely that Democrats would take the Senate. For Democrats to retake the Senate, they'll need to win at least two seats and not lose any Senators.
More here .